The turkey’s confidence

Nassim Taleb often quotes the parable of the unlucky turkey.

This turkey was nurtured for a 1000 days by a butcher. The butcher fed him everyday, kept the bird warm during the winters and cared for it. With each passing day, the turkey’s confidence of the butcher’s benevolence increased.

A 1000 days later, Thanksgiving arrived, and the turkey had a rude revision of its belief.

Yet, on the 999th evening, right before the butcher’s knife fell, was when the turkey’s confidence of his benevolence was the highest. If the turkey had an audience at the barn, he would have extolled the butcher’s virtues and convinced every farm animal as to how she was a model human being.

Pride goes before the fall, because our confidence is often the highest in the precise moment before it is absolutely shattered. The remedy is to hold even the strongest by a loose thread.

Inspiration: Antifragile