I will definitely _____

Most New Year’s resolutions are some formulation of ‘I will definitely ____ all year long’. We know for a fact that by February, about 80% of them fail.

People’s statements about their future actions are unreliable. Ignore surveys and behavioural studies based on people’s intentions. Many a business has gone belly-up because of building a product that prospective customers said they would definitely buy.

When you’re interviewing candidates or customers, the words ‘I will definitely ____’ should raise a red flag. The only reliable measure of a person’s behaviour is what they have already done, or what they currently do. People’s notions about their future actions (including our own) are mostly noise.

Inspiration: The Mom Test

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