Break up your bets

Which one would you rather pick? 1 bet with a 50% chance of winning $1500 and a 50% chance of losing $1000? Or 10 bets, each with a 50% chance of winning $150 but a 50% chance of losing $100?

Both of those options are equivalent from their expected return. Yet, the second one is far safer, for it is less prone to volatility. In a series of 10 such bets, there is a much bigger chance of ending up with a net positive result. And we understand this intuitively.

When we’re hoping to make a big launch or a grand opening with our project, with months of effort invested into it, we opt for that large bet. No wonder it is big and scary. What if that fails? What would that mean for all the efforts we’ve invested? All of this fear holds us back from doing anything at all.

The alternative is to ship a little bit everyday – to make a series of small bets that cumulate and compound in the long run.

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