A string of smaller bets

Would you take the a bet where you had a 50% chance of winning $1500 and a 50% chance of losing $1000?

How about 10 bets, with a 50% chance of winning $150 and 50% chance of losing $100 on each of them?

Most people shy away from taking the big bet, but are open to accepting the series of smaller ones. Yet, from a probabilistic perspective, in both cases, the expected outcome is the same for both the alternatives (0.5×1500 – 0.5×1000 = $250).

When the stakes are high, even at the same odds, the leap is intimidating. People who dream of making a grand splash when they start something often keep raising the stakes of their plan, which prevents them from ever starting.

It is often better to split up our grand plan into a series of smaller ones – to begin and encourage forward motion.

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